The stand-off between Pakistan and Iran is yet another dangerous moving part in the Middle East as the drumbeat of war gets louder
Attacks by the two nations on each other's territory increase the risk that a miscalculation in the region could lead to a much wider conflict.
Thursday 18 January 2024 13:36, UK
The Middle East is on fire and the blaze is starting to spread.
The stand-off between Pakistan and Iran is definitely not about the 7 October attacks by Hamas - in many ways it is entirely unrelated - but it remains in the background casting a menacing shadow all the same.
There really is a grave danger now of a regional war erupting.
What we are witnessing may even already be the start, but that remains an open question.
Follow latest: Pakistan says Iran strikes due to 'terrorist activities'
The latest escalation involves retaliatory strikes by Pakistan inside Iran.
Its military says it carried out a "precision" attack on what it claims are terrorist bases - these were seven locations used by Baluch separatists.
The action was a response after the Iranians launched an air strike in Baluchistan province in Pakistan.
Pakistan is a majority Sunni country and Iran is Shia - for the most part in recent years the two states, one nuclear and the other with nuclear ambitions, have had a cordial relationship.
This development though is another worrying sign the crisis in the Middle East has gone beyond containment - Washington's strategy since the Hamas attacks last year.
Iran has now, in the last week, launched strikes in Iraq, Syria and Pakistan.
This has primarily been a response to a terror attack in Kerman on 3 January which killed a large number of people - the worst atrocity since the Iranian revolution in 1979.
The attack was claimed by the local branch of Islamic State and the Iranian military has been lashing out in response to that.
The strikes are a projection of power but also a reaction to the terrorism.
But there is another factor at play, certainly psychologically, and this feeds off the events of 7 October.
There is a huge US military presence in the Middle East and part of Iran's posture, after the terror attack, is reflecting that.
By using advanced precision-guided missiles it is projecting strength at a time when it feels vulnerable both internally and externally.
Where this goes next is impossible to read - will Pakistan and Iran now assume a brittle stand-off through diplomatic channels, or will there be more kinetic military reaction?
But, whatever, the overall picture is troubling.
Read more:
Pakistan and Iran accuse each other of harbouring terrorists
Could Israeli escalation with Hezbollah lead to wider Middle East war?
Who are the key leaders of Hamas - inside Gaza and beyond?
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The US has now launched, in the last 24 hours, its fourth round of strikes against the Houthis in Yemen.
The group, though, remains undeterred and is continuing to hit commercial ships in the Red Sea.
Meanwhile, cross-border clashes between the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah - another Iranian proxy - and Israel continue.
The war in Gaza also shows no sign of ending.
Events in the region and their reactions often spiral in unforeseen ways beyond the grip of military masters and policymakers.
The risk now is with so many dangerous moving parts a misstep or miscalculation that could ignite things further may not be far away.
The drumbeat of war is getting louder.